Date: Wed, December 5, 14:30- Place: Room As311, As Block, IIS, The University of Tokyo Invited Speaker: Prof. Danilo P. Mandic (Imperial College London) Title: Complex Valued Nonlinear Forecasting Using Augmented Statistics Abstract: In engineering applications, complex valued signals are either complex by design (communications) or they are made complex by convenience of representation (directional signals, vector fields, sensor arrays). One phenomenon which benefits from its complex valued representation is complex wind field. This talk will adress nonlinear predictive modelling of wind field and will propose forecasting models which take into account the dependence between the speed and direction components. To produce enhanced statistical models of the intermittent (and hence non-Gaussian) wind signal, some new developments in complex statitics will be employed. A class of "augmented" algorithms will be introduced and the links between the circularity and "properness" of a random complex variable will be highlighted. Further, surrogate data testing for appropriateness of complex valued representations will be introduced. Simulations on a range of wind regimes will be presented to illustrate the benefits of complex valued representation of wind field.